The new Middle East presented by Benyamin Netanyahu to the UN in September 2023 echoes the Greater Middle East of George W. Bush Jr before the invasion of Iraq. The Israeli Prime Minister presents a map to illustrate his speech. In green, the Arab states of the region , partners or future partners of Israel. Among these powers: Sudan, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain. In other words, all the states that have signed agreements with Israel plus one power to do so: Saudi Arabia. The other countries in the region, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran, in a neutral color, are not mentioned. In navy blue appears Israel, not under its current borders but encompassing all of the Palestinian territories.

Netanyahu's main objective in 2024 is the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia . Enthusiasm for the State of Israel and for its most faithful partner: the United States. Just before entering the campaign, Joe Biden dreams of himself as a privileged interlocutor who would bring the two countries closer together, to considerably strengthen the policy of containment around Iran, stabilize the region a little more and thumb his nose at China which had won a diplomatic victory by allowing the Saudi Arabia/Iran rapprochement in 2023. A normalization which would take different forms : economic, energy, technological, security and military. Finally, the Palestinian question, a sticking point between the two nations, also determined to fight against the common enemy/adversary, Iran, could hope to be resolved.

Then, October 7, 2023.

The Hamas attacks on the border between Israel and Gaza have called everything into question. The determined Israeli response is once again helping to transform the region . Because, if the populations of Arab countries support the Palestinian fight en masse, their governments have long played a balancing act, between support for the cause and the Abdallah plan of 2002 which provides for the creation of a Palestinian state, and realism , which makes Israel an essential partner for the development of their economies. While the latter has already signed several peace agreements in the region, only the United Arab Emirates has condemned Hamas's attacks. A pebble in the shoe of the Abraham Accords. And the much-desired rapprochement with Saudi Arabia is at a standstill.

A CONNECTION IN THE INTERESTS OF BOTH PARTIES

The game of alliances is the corollary of international relations. In the Middle East, freed from Western empires, the various actors are now seeking to benefit from the expansion of the countries of the "Global South", these states with strong potential which seek at all costs to expand economically and wish to free themselves from the logic of blocks which have long forced them to play second roles.

In this context, the Saudi kingdom's desire to take the reins of the Arab world and assert itself as a regional leader requires its modernization, which Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman has understood well. Its economic model is based on the “Vision 2030” plan which seeks to attract foreign investors, diversify an economy still too dependent on hydrocarbons, invest in real estate and giga-projects (such as The Line ). A “vision” which requires regional partners and which tensions and wars would only slow down. The country, engaged in a war in Yemen which has weakened it, must be aware of this.

This international approach cannot take place without a partnership with a power such as Israel, and therefore without its recognition. A rich and democratic country, long isolated, the Hebrew state is obvious for a Saudi Arabia as MBS imagines it : strong against Iran and the Houthis, open to rich investors, supported by the United States, trading with China, a land welcoming Muslims from all over the world thanks to the holiest sites of Islam, and managing global oil production in OPEC+ in close partnership with Russia.

The countries that negotiated peace with Israel are currently politically stabilized countries

For Israel too, the stakes are high. Long surrounded by a Muslim world which had sworn its doom, the country only has interests in a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. Beyond the partnerships mentioned above, this normalization would further stabilize the region and reduce the Iranian power's capacity to cause harm. It would offer an expanded and practically “finalized” security architecture . Indeed, the countries that negotiated peace with Israel are currently politically stabilized, economically emerging countries and supported by the American umbrella. Quite the opposite of Iranian proxies: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, failed states whose populations seem to have lost all hope.

A PEACE MADE IMPOSSIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME

The strategy of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack of October 7 consisted, among other things, of calling into question this imminent peace agreement. While it cannot be said that this is indeed the case, the talks are currently frozen. Israel's stubbornness in responding quickly (notably for obvious political reasons) has caused it to sink into an obsession with revenge. A revenge that will have consequences. By responding in this way, Benjamin Netanyahu imagines destroying Hamas. Impossible, he is told, since its ramifications are immense, its leaders outside Gaza. It will only eliminate fighters, a few political leaders, in any case nothing irreplaceable for the Islamist organization. Above all, it condemns the entire region to dust and blood, bombs civilians and contributes to outrage – still very timidly, of course – its partners as well as to enrage its enemies and to create new terrorist centers.

MBS can no longer negotiate. At present, it must be recognized that the crown prince's hands are tied in this matter. It's hard to hold it against him. How could it continue talks when its population overwhelmingly supports the Palestinian cause? Certainly, repression does not scare him, but he also knows that it could be difficult for him to politically survive continued negotiations, at least as long as Israel continues to pile on Palestinian victims. His personal safety could also be compromised. The assassination of Egyptian President Sadat, who led peace with Israel, remains a major event in Arab-Israeli relations, certainly in the minds of all Arab leaders considering peace with Israel.

However, we can imagine that a peace agreement signed between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be solid and should not be called into question in future years. But it cannot be concluded under current conditions, and this is Netanyahu's strategic error, and a victory for Hamas.

NETANYAHU’S CONTRADICTIONS

The Prime Minister's fierce conviction in not listening to any of his partners regarding the even possibility of a truce risks freezing any negotiations with Saudi Arabia in the long term, at least as long as he is in power. power. Since October 7, the Israeli Prime Minister has been said to be in the hot seat. But it appears that unless there is another bitter failure from a security point of view, for example in the attempts to recover the last hostages, he will do everything to stay in office until the next elections, which certainly could prove fatal. , but would not significantly change the security outlook as the left-wing parties, inclined to peace negotiations, simply struggle to exist on the political spectrum. Although the improvement of the condition of the Palestinians is - officially - a condition for the continuation of the negotiations, the status quo would not call into question anything . It is after October 7, more precisely the disproportionate Israeli military response that is blocking things. And the main consequence of freezing negotiations with Saudi Arabia will be to slow down the formation of a coalition against Iran, which Netanyahu really wants. It is contradictory behavior from a leader who has long since lost all notion of reality and does not consider, wrongly, that his actions go against his objectives.

The coming acceleration of colonization risks undermining the desire to counter Iran, which is already a step ahead by having reopened normalization with the Saudi kingdom

Negotiations with a view to normalization are difficult to envisage with a government which refuses any compromise, greatly annoys the American administration in office and refuses to listen to any partner regarding truce talks, which would nevertheless allow the release of the hostages or even access for humanitarian convoys.

The face of a possible conciliation with Saudi Arabia therefore depends more on the polls , not only in Israel since the specter of Donald Trump, fully committed to the cause of the Hebrew State, could try to put all his weight behind Mohammed Ben. Salman. He would then have to show finesse to get the negotiations back on track.

THE POST-WAR QUESTION REMAINS ENTIRE, AS WELL AS THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES

If the Israeli authorities have assured that they do not want to administer Gaza after the objectives have been achieved - objectives which, according to many specialists, prove otherwise unattainable - the pressure put by the ministers of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in the lead, for the installation of colonies on Gazan territory could also undermine attempts to negotiate with Saudi Arabia. This is, again, the whole contradiction of the foreign policy of the Israeli far-right government. The coming acceleration of colonization risks undermining the desire to counter Iran, which is already a step ahead by having reopened normalization with the Saudi kingdom, and which is using animosity towards Israel to place your pawns. In turn, this strategy could lead to making the Middle East even more dangerous for Israel than it was just a few years ago.

The role of the United States takes on its full meaning in a crucial election year. As of this writing, there are still three possibilities. The Trump line, conciliatory towards Israel, undoubtedly the toughest towards Iran and which could therefore accelerate a normalization process with Saudi Arabia. To do this, it would be necessary to put pressure on MBS, which Trump would see as a challenge worthy of him, but which would not be won in advance, as the prince is rather on a line close to the "Global South" which consists of breaking away little gradually from Western control. The fact remains that the Saudis remain long-time allies of the Americans and that MBS will not try to alienate Trump either. He will want to obtain security guarantees from an ally whom he accuses of having abandoned him against the Houthis.

The legal cases Trump is facing could prevent him from running. In this scenario, Nikki Haley remains a possibility that should not be overlooked.

The Biden line is the second possibility. The current president and his secretary of state are holding more meetings to find a solution that could lead to a humanitarian ceasefire. But for the moment, Netanyahu doesn't care. The American administration is paying for both its lack of proximity to the Israeli government in place and its unfailing but sometimes ambiguous support in its declarations. The way of warning Israel while officially supporting, within international bodies, the continuation of the war, by dropping a few criticisms here and there on indiscriminate bombings or the advancement of colonization sounds like a dangerous game , in an uncertain electoral context.

The third line is the most improbable to date. This is the Haley line. The last candidate facing Trump in the Republican primary elections, it appears impossible for her to beat the ex-president at the polls. However, the legal cases Trump is facing could prevent him from running. In this scenario, which no one is able to predict, it remains a possibility that should not be neglected. And the least we can say is that his line of conduct is 100% in favor of Israel, the continuation of the war and the desire to put an end to Hamas. She even recently declared that it was necessary to begin negotiating with the “pro-Hamas countries” in the region (meaning Turkey, Egypt, Jordan) so that they welcome the Palestinians, or even so that the latter do not have never wanted, like Iran, a two-state solution since they “desire the destruction of Israel. »

The current situation therefore satisfies no one and the absence of a long-term Israeli strategy is as worrying as the short-term unilateral strategy which promises to worsen the security of the Jewish state in the region . By reacting in this way, the Israeli government is opting for self-destruction. A shame for a state which, throughout its existence, has resisted its enemies.

As for Saudi Arabia, it remains in a stand-by situation, which may suit MBS who will need to convince his population, for example by continuing his economic development. Iran, to its advantage, should continue to take advantage of the situation. The United States, feverish, remains linked to an electoral future which could prove explosive.