Since November 19, the Yemeni Houthi rebels have intensified their attacks in the Red Sea, with more than 35 incidents recorded since that date, significantly disrupting international maritime transport. Yemen is located near the Bab-El Mandeb Strait, a crucial passage to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. These actions aim to support Hamas and the Palestinians amid the ongoing Israeli operation following the October 7 attacks. Despite the US-led military presence, the threat remains unabated. Our analysis.

ASSAULT ON INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TRADE

Context

The Bab-el Mandeb Strait marks the passage from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. Strategically located, it is situated between the coasts of three countries: Eritrea, Djibouti, and Yemen. The strait is a critical passage for ships heading to the Red Sea. Thanks to the Suez Canal, managed by Egypt, the majority of commercial ships can access the European market much faster than by circumnavigating Africa. Globally, 12% of maritime trade transits through Suez. The Houthi rebels, who control two-thirds of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, have decided since the Hamas attacks on Israel to play a role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Armed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, they have the operational capability to impact the conflict by targeting ships transiting their waters. Over thirty attacks have occurred since last November, and while they have not caused casualties, they significantly alter the approach of the targeted companies.

The Red Sea is now classified as a "High-Risk Zone," meaning ships passing through must expressly notify their insurers.

This geopolitical situation has serious consequences: the cost of maritime transport insurance is skyrocketing, posing economic risks. The Red Sea is now a "High-Risk Zone," meaning ships passing through must expressly notify their insurers, who adjust contracts accordingly (adding extra premiums, etc.). In response to the threats, major container operators, controlling over 80% of the global market, have decided to circumnavigate Africa, adding about 10 extra days of navigation to connect Asia and Europe. This change causes logistical and industrial disruptions in Europe. For instance, Tesla has halted production in Germany, Volvo has suspended activities in Belgium, and smaller companies must revise their orders. Operators must quickly adapt to this new geopolitical reality, with potentially lasting consequences for global supply chains and port markets.

The regular shipping line system is disrupted by the avoidance of the Suez Canal, affecting global supply chains. Mediterranean ports are experiencing a significant decrease in large container ship stops, with substantial drops recorded in Piraeus, Port Said, Mersin, and Marseille. Some Spanish ports, like Barcelona and Valencia, are more resilient due to their proximity to the Strait of Gibraltar. However, maritime companies now prioritize serving major northern European ports at the expense of Mediterranean ports.

Analysis

This situation highlights another consequence of the ongoing war in Gaza, particularly Israel's decision to continue bombarding the enclave, as the Houthis have made it clear that their attacks would cease in the event of a ceasefire. These operations primarily aim to establish Iranian influence, indirectly impacting the conflict. For the Houthis, the strategy also serves internal purposes, as they demonstrate that, despite having significantly fewer resources than Western countries, they can disrupt the international order by supporting a cause important to the Yemeni population.

OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN : ANOTHER AMERICAN DEADLOCK

Context

To curb Houthi fervor, the United States attempted to federate an international coalition to secure the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. However, success has been elusive. The European mission "Atalanta" and the US-led Combined Task Force 153 lack sufficient resources to effectively monitor the vast maritime region, and a certain rivalry between European and American military forces hampers cooperation. Several allied countries, including France, refused to participate in the American operation Prosperity Guardian. Australia declined to send a warship to the region, while EU powers launched their own operation to avoid American command. India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia also dispatched ships but did not join the American operation, which can only rely on military power from Canada and the United Kingdom. Other countries with limited means also participate (Bahrain, Greece, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and the Seychelles). Even Egypt, severely affected by the Suez Canal bypass due to significant revenue losses, did not join the American fleet.

Analysis

The United States continue to pay for the multitude of strategic errors made after September 11, 2001

Washington has also launched a bombing campaign with the United Kingdom, with little effect, as the American president himself acknowledged in an interview. The inability of the United States to stop the attacks or to gather allies around them for a significant coalition depicts a new stage in the American deadlock in the Middle East. Although they still have many allies in the region, they have significantly lost credibility. They continue to pay for the multitude of strategic errors made after September 11, 2001. The invasion of Iraq against the advice of the United Nations Security Council, the gradual disengagement to pivot towards Asia, the unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, the chaotic departure from Afghanistan, and the debacle during the request for increased oil production, along with unwavering support for Israel, have further radicalized hatred against them while pushing their historical allies to learn to manage without them. European powers did not want to risk "suffering" under American command, with the justified risk of being drawn into a military attack on Yemen.

MISSION ASPIDES : THE UE IN DEFENSIVE MODE

Context

In this context, on February 19, 2024, the European Union launched a maritime security operation named "Aspides." With a one-year mandate and a budget of 8 million euros, this mission aims to protect navigation in a vast area covering the Bab Al-Mandeb and Hormuz straits, as well as several international waters. Several EU countries, including Belgium, Italy, Germany, and France, participate in this mission, while Spain chose not to join. The "Aspides" mission aims to restore maritime security and freedom of navigation in this strategic corridor. Commanded by Italy, it is considered an important step towards a common European defense. Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, emphasized the mission's importance for protecting the commercial and security interests of the EU and the international community. Unlike the American operation Prosperity Guardian, which carried out airstrikes against Houthi targets, the European mission is purely defensive. Respecting international law and United Nations Security Council resolution 2272, guaranteeing proportional and necessary actions, it does not envisage any ground attacks against Houthi positions but focuses on defending merchant ships.

Analysis

It is still early, as we write these lines, to observe the effects of such an operation. However, experts suggest that the budget of 8 million euros for this first year seems somewhat modest, particularly because it does not include operational resources provided by member states, such as ships and aircraft. This EU-led coalition raises questions about divergences among member states. Indeed, it consists only of ships from the French, Italian, German, Greek, and Dutch national navies. The latter two also participate in the American operation, along with other EU states (see above). Strategic divergences are explained by different contexts and narratives, similar to the debates following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when discussions centered around American protection or European strategic autonomy.

STRENGHTHENING IRAN'S POSITION ?

Context

But what is Iran's role in this operation? Principal supporter of the Houthis in the Yemeni war against a Saudi-led coalition, the Islamic Republic has become a fervent supporter of the Palestinian cause since Hamas's deadly operation in Israel. However, this support is more a means to harm the Israeli enemy than a plea for the recognition of a Palestinian state, which is Arab and Sunni. The Houthis are primarily an essential element of the "axis of resistance," a network of non-state armed groups and states sharing a common opposition to Western, particularly American and Israeli, influence in the Middle East. Iran plays a central role in forming and supporting this axis, using various political, military, and financial means to strengthen its regional allies. Alongside the Houthis, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias are also part of this axis, aiming to challenge and reduce US and Israeli influence in the region and strengthen Iran's geopolitical position.

The Palestinian cause holds significant strategic importance: its support aims to galvanize public opinion, showcasing attachment to popular values, especially in contrast to the Gulf monarchies, which support Israel in the war against Hamas despite their public opinion. 

Analysis

For Iran, the rise of the Houthis is positive. Despite economic challenges and growing discontent in the regions under their control, the Houthis remain the dominant force in northwestern Yemen. Limited Iranian financial support has enabled the Houthis to become a key player in the "axis of resistance." Iran seeks to maximize its investment by legitimizing Houthi power and supporting a political process with Saudi Arabia. This legitimization would strengthen Houthi influence without diluting their power in Sanaa. Additionally, the Houthis' ability to disrupt navigation in the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait benefits Iran by increasing costs for its rivals.

Strengthening ties between the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah significantly bolsters the axis of resistance. The Houthis, positioning themselves as champions of the Palestinian cause, gain popularity in Yemen and the Arab world, contrasting with their US-aligned rivals. However, Houthi actions also pose risks for Iran. The Islamic Republic seeks to avoid direct confrontation with the US and Israel due to their military power, as seen after the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. While the Iranians have repeatedly threatened retaliation, they took care to ensure no civilians were harmed when they finally acted. It was even suggested, though unconfirmed, that the Americans were warned beforehand by the Iranians to take necessary precautions.

The Houthis, with a higher risk tolerance, can lead to undesirable escalations for Iran. Thus, Iran's strategy aims to maintain a delicate balance, using armed groups to provoke without triggering major conflict. Iran aims to limit US actions and increase costs for its rivals while consolidating regional gains. This balance remains fragile, with risks of escalation and adverse reactions, especially when intermediaries, who can slip out of control, are involved.

The situation in the Red Sea demonstrates the complex ramifications of regional conflicts on international maritime trade. Houthi attacks severely disrupt global supply chains, increasing costs and delivery times. While the European Union and the United States attempt to secure the region through different means, Iranian influence and the rise of the Houthis further complicate regional stability. The European "Aspides" mission marks a collective response attempt, but significant challenges remain. In the long term, the situation requires a diplomatic solution to stabilize the region and protect global economic interests, largely tied to the future of the war led by Israel against Hamas.

Sources :

Tristan Coloma, Les Houthistes défient Washington, le monde diplomatique, Mars 2024 https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2024/03/COLOMA/66643

L’Iran et les houthistes, une alliance imparfaite

Thomas Juneau, Orient XXI : https://orientxxi.info/dossiers-et-series/l-iran-et-les-houthistes-une-alliance-sans-alignement,7235

Ronan Kerbiriou, Brigitte Daudet, Yann Alix. Comment le conflit Israël-Hamas redessine les routes du transport maritime. 

10 mars 2024. ⟨hal-04501181⟩

Vincent Tupinier, L’Union européenne lance l’opération “Aspides” contre les attaques houthistes, Toute l'Europe https://www.touteleurope.eu/l-ue-dans-le-monde/l-union-europeenne-lance-l-operation-aspides-contre-les-attaques-houthistes/