In 2018, during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, the world witnessed a historic moment filled with hope and emotion: the delegations of North Korea and South Korea marching together under a single banner. This event marked a rare opportunity for reconciliation in a region long marked by division and conflict. The image of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un crossing the demarcation line to meet his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in had raised expectations for an era of peace and cooperation.

Since then, however, relations between the two Koreas have deteriorated significantly. Belligerent rhetoric, the sending of trash-filled balloons, explicit threats, and military demonstrations have become the daily reality of a Korean peninsula once again plagued by tensions. The hopes for peace now seem distant, replaced by an escalation of provocations that worries the international community.

What has happened for the situation to deteriorate so much? What underlying factors fuel these tensions? What are the possible scenarios for the future of the peninsula? These questions are pressing and attempting to answer them highlights the growing uncertainty within the international community.

FROM HOPE TO DISILLUSIONMENT: INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS SINCE 2018

In 2018, following the Winter Olympics, which served as a catalyst for symbolic gestures of peace and cooperation between the two Koreas, and the subsequent meeting between their two leaders, several agreements were signed, notably a military agreement on September 19, 2018, aimed at reducing tensions and preventing accidental conflicts. This agreement included measures such as the establishment of maritime and aerial buffer zones, as well as the cessation of live-fire military exercises along the demilitarized zone.

With the election of conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol in May 2022, Seoul's policy toward Pyongyang changed significantly. Unlike his progressive predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who favored appeasement and dialogue, Yoon Suk-yeol adopted a much firmer and conditional stance towards North Korea. In his inauguration speech, he conditioned aid for the North's economic revival on complete denuclearization. Consequently, the new president called for strengthened military deterrence, particularly through closer ties with the United States. He also stated that preemptive strikes might be necessary to counter North Korea's new hypersonic missiles if they appeared ready to be launched imminently. In August 2022, he reinstated joint military exercises with the United States, which had been suspended since the 2018 agreement. These maneuvers, dubbed "Ulchi Freedom Shield," presented as defensive, marked the failure of negotiations with the North.

On November 22, 2022, North Korea officially ended the 2018 agreement after weeks of tension. In February 2023, the South defined the North as an "enemy" in its defense white paper. In January 2024, Kim Jong-un delivered a speech (mainly focusing on the country's economic situation) to the party's deputies, warning that he was ready for war, and that it would "terribly destroy the entity called the Republic of Korea and end its existence. And it will inflict unimaginable crushing defeat on the United States." On June 4, 2024, the South announced that the country would "resume all military activities near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and the northwest border islands following the complete suspension of the 2018 military agreement aimed at reducing inter-Korean tensions," adding that "all responsibilities lie entirely with the North Korean regime, and if the North attempts further provocation, our army will respond severely based on a firm combined defense posture between South Korea and the United States." The United States, for its part, strongly supports South Korea's position.

The North Korean leader remains deeply affected by the fate of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, arguing that if they had possessed nuclear power, they would still be alive and in power.

Initially promising, negotiations between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump reached an impasse at their second summit in Hanoi in February 2019, with each party blaming the other for the failure. The absence of an agreement on denuclearization and the lifting of sanctions led to a return of tensions. Kim Jong-un stated that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal, reaffirming that it was non-negotiable. He considers this arsenal to be the regime's life insurance. The North Korean leader remains deeply affected by the fate of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, arguing that if they had possessed nuclear power, they would still be alive and in power. Furthermore, the "juche" doctrine, developed by Kim Il-sung and still celebrated today by the regime in schools and administrations, advocates for the country's essential autonomy and asserts that it must be able to determine its own political, economic, and military destinies.

MOTIVATIONS AND PLOYS

Inside the world's most closed country, Kim Jong-un also uses the external threat as a tool to maintain control over his population and justify the regime's strict measures. Belligerent rhetoric and demonstrations of force serve to reinforce the regime's legitimacy by showing that it is ready to defend the nation at all costs. North Korea perceives joint military exercises between South Korea, the United States, and Japan as direct provocations, with the leader denouncing, in his January speech, "the frequent remarks of US authorities about the 'end of our regime,' the vast strategic nuclear assets stationed in the peripheral area of the DPRK almost all year round, the incessant war exercises with their followers organized on a large scale, the reinforced military link between Japan and the Republic of Korea under US instigation..." These maneuvers, often described by Pyongyang as preparations for an invasion, justify in their eyes the need to demonstrate their retaliatory capability. Missile tests and other military demonstrations are therefore also a calculated response to the actions of their southern neighbors and allies. By accentuating military tensions, Kim Jong-un seeks to unite the population around a common enemy and justify the regime's military spending priorities.

For the United States and South Korea, joint military exercises and statements of firmness aim to reassure their allies in the region and demonstrate their determination to defend their interests and those of their partners. Strengthening military ties with Japan and integrating new missile defense systems illustrate this reinforced deterrence strategy. The allies conducted no less than forty-two joint military exercises in 2023, all aimed at anticipating a confrontation with the North. The United States has consistently insisted on North Korea's denuclearization as a precondition for any significant negotiation, an inflexible position that has led to today's diplomatic impasse. Economic sanctions and military exercises are part of the means used to exert continuous pressure on Pyongyang, which sees them as aggression. This sentiment has only intensified with Yoon Suk-yeol's rise to power, adopting a firm, significantly belligerent policy in light of the North Korean regime's nature, refusing compromises without guarantees on North Korea's denuclearization.

The paralysis of the United Nations Security Council, due to disagreements among its permanent members, allows Pyongyang to continue its military programs without fear of immediate new international sanctions.

As for the US strategy in the Korean peninsula, it is also influenced by the desire to contain China's growing influence in the region. By maintaining a strong military presence in South Korea and strengthening trilateral alliances with Seoul and Tokyo, Washington seeks to limit China's geopolitical expansion and ensure a favorable balance of power. The war in Ukraine and the increasing tensions between major powers, notably between the United States and China, exacerbate the dissensions on the Korean peninsula. North Korea uses this global context of instability to strengthen its positions and try to obtain concessions. The paralysis of the United Nations Security Council, due to disagreements among its permanent members, allows Pyongyang to continue its military programs without fear of immediate new international sanctions.

China and Russia also play crucial roles in the dynamics of the Korean peninsula, acting as the main economic and political supporters of North Korea. Beijing, in particular, remains Pyongyang's main trading partner, providing essential economic aid, especially during periods of international sanctions. Moscow, for its part, offers political and diplomatic support by opposing United Nations Security Council resolutions aimed at sanctioning North Korea. The two powers have repeatedly used their veto power in the Security Council to block stricter sanctions against North Korea. In May 2022, for example, China and Russia vetoed a resolution aimed at sanctioning Pyongyang for its ballistic tests. Russia even vetoed the renewal of the mandate of the expert group assisting the Sanctions Committee against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in March 2024.

Russia, facing severe tensions with the West, sees North Korea as a strategic ally to counter American influence in Asia, reinforced by their "pivot to Asia" initiated by Barack Obama following setbacks in the Middle East, with a substantial military presence in South Korea and strategic alliances with Seoul and Tokyo. For China, North Korea's stability is essential to avoid a humanitarian crisis on its border and maintain a buffer state between it and US military forces stationed in South Korea. The strategic rivalry between these two superpowers manifests itself in increased support for their respective allies in the region. The United States strengthens its alliances with South Korea and Japan, while China continues to support North Korea, a rivalry that contributes to instability and complicates the search for diplomatic solutions.

FUTURE SCENARIOS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA

Scenario of Conflict

The escalation of military tensions between the two Koreas, accentuated by demonstrations of force and belligerent rhetoric, significantly increases the risk of conflict. The geopolitical game, often reflecting trends, makes the shift from escalation to military conflict seem most probable today. Border incidents, joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, as well as North Korean missile tests could lead to accidents or inadvertent provocations, triggering a direct military confrontation.

An armed conflict on the Korean peninsula would have devastating consequences not only for the two Koreas but also for the Asian region and the entire world. Neighboring countries, such as Japan and China, would be directly affected, and the economic and humanitarian implications would be enormous. Additionally, a conflict could lead to military intervention by the United States and its allies, potentially resulting in a large-scale war involving several nuclear powers. As relations between Westerners and Russians are at their lowest, it is hard to imagine how much this potential conflict could escalate, especially if the ongoing conflict in Ukraine persists. A destabilization of North Korea could lead to major humanitarian crises, with massive refugee flows towards China and South Korea. In this context, a collapse of the North Korean regime, although unlikely, could also create a dangerous power vacuum, fostering internal conflicts and possible foreign military intervention aimed at securing nuclear weapons.

Scenario of De-escalation

In a currently hard-to-imagine scenario, the two Koreas and their allies could find ways to de-escalate tensions and resume dialogue. This would require mutual confidence-building measures, such as reducing military exercises, halting provocations, and reopening communication channels. Diplomatic initiatives could include bilateral and trilateral meetings with the mediation of third powers like China or Russia, but again, tensions between major powers act as catalysts for confrontations rather than peace. International mediation efforts, supported by security guarantees and economic incentives, could nevertheless encourage Pyongyang and Seoul to return to the negotiating table. But each party would have to make compromises. The personality and policy of the South Korean president currently prevent these compromises, but the heavy defeat he recently suffered in the latest legislative elections could change the game, as the Democratic Party of the former president consolidates its majority. The international community must also work on the progressive lifting of sanctions in exchange for verifiable concessions from North Korea.

Strengthening regional cooperation in security and economic development could also contribute to de-escalating tensions. Joint projects in areas such as energy, infrastructure, and resource management could create economic incentives for peace. Additionally, establishing regional collective security mechanisms involving the two Koreas, China, Japan, and the United States could help stabilize the region.

Mixed Scenarios

An intermediate scenario could see limited conflicts or sporadic skirmishes followed by negotiations under international pressure. These confrontations could serve as catalysts for more serious peace talks under the mediation of the international community. Another plausible scenario is maintaining the status quo, where tensions remain high but are managed through diplomatic engagements and arms control measures. Although complete peace may not be achieved, this scenario would prevent a major conflict while leaving the door open for future negotiations.

Long-term Perspectives

In the long term, the ideal vision for the Korean peninsula would be complete denuclearization of North Korea, accompanied by the normalization of relations between Pyongyang and Seoul. This would involve a formal peace treaty ending the Korean War, lifting economic sanctions, and integrating North Korea into the international community. But as we have seen, the problem lies in the idea that, in Kim Jong-un's eyes, possessing a nuclear arsenal is his only means of survival.

The other long-term goal remains the peaceful reunification of the two Koreas. Although this currently seems improbable, constant efforts to promote cooperation, mutual understanding, and cultural exchanges could gradually bring the two nations closer together. A successful reunification would require massive international support and careful planning to manage the economic and social disparities between the North and South. This reunification is indeed an integral part of North Korean ideology and cannot, despite the supreme leader's words, be definitively buried.

Peace between the two Koreas is not coming soon. But on the peninsula, only humans have the power to regulate belligerent aspirations. Unfortunately, foreign influences, especially Russian and American, can have heavy consequences, as they primarily have their own interests in mind. Undoubtedly, China can act as a mediating power, but it risks being misguided by its obsession with reducing American influence, as well as its animosity towards Japan. The most effective way to achieve peace seems to be for the South to desire peace, free itself from international tutelage, and resume negotiations, as the North will not move towards reunification if it sees a threat.

For both sides, this threat is permanent.

Photos : @creasyl