The enlargement of the European Union to the Western Balkans countries appears almost elusive today. With the war in Ukraine, the question arises of integrating countries "martyred" by a Russia nostalgic for the Soviet era, to the detriment of those from the former Yugoslavia, which continue to heal the wounds of a war with still present trauma.

AN LONG-CONSIDERED ENTRY

"There is an absolute geostrategic interest for us, Europeans, to integrate the Balkan countries into the European Union." The statement is signed by Angela Merkel, who had never hidden her desire for enlargement.

The question of the Western Balkans' entry into the European Union is not new. The oldest member states consider this region, which includes the countries of the former Yugoslavia without Slovenia, but with Albania, as part of the European framework. Croatia is currently the only one of these countries to have joined the Union, in 2013. The others must go through an integration process that consists of all the steps prior to entry into the Union.

The 2003 Thessaloniki European Council allowed an assessment of the reforms undertaken by some Balkan countries with the aim of integrating the European Union, after a decade marked by the atrocities of several wars in the former Yugoslavia, and while Slovenia is about to be integrated during the largest enlargement the Union has ever seen. Nearly twenty years later, there is still no deadline for the entry of these countries, despite the reiterated desire on both sides to finalize the integration process.

So, how do the difficulties of the Balkans' integration process mainly reflect the debate over European Union enlargement in a context of geostrategic power struggles in the region?

Despite an almost unquestionable common will and the numerous reforms undertaken by the candidates, the integration process drags on because these reforms have not yet managed to overcome still incompatible difficulties.

The debate over enlargement, in a difficult European context, is also marked by the crises of the 2010s, notably the difficulty in reaching agreements with certain member states and those of the current decade, overshadowed by the Russian invasion in Ukraine.

Finally, power issues in the region explain the geostrategic interest in the Balkans' entry into the EU. Will an entry strengthen the European Union, or further divide it?

A STALLED INTEGRATION PROCESS

Having just taken oath for a new term, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić was particularly monitored regarding his proximity to the Kremlin, in a context of extreme tensions between Russia and the European Union, following the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Belgrade remains steadfast : its primary objective is to integrate the European Union. This desire is expressed throughout the other Balkan countries: confidence in European institutions is significantly higher there than in national institutions. The primary goal of the Balkans is to integrate the European single market to boost the economy, taking advantage of the principle of free movement. However, despite official or potential candidate status and mutual willingness, the integration process is almost at a standstill. This is due to the lingering effects of the tragedies that occurred in the 1990s, against a backdrop of communal and religious tensions and in a context of endemic corruption in certain regions.

The candidates have begun to implement essential reforms for the acceptance of their candidacy. The European Union has made certain criteria essential conditions for its enlargement. In this regard, Albania has initiated a "strengthening program for equality between women and men in access to economic opportunities" supported by the French Development Agency (AFD). Furthermore, in an attempt to facilitate rapprochement, a European investment plan totaling thirty billion euros is intended to enable, among other things, structural economic reforms or respect for the rule of law. These structural reforms appear essential, especially in certain countries like Bosnia, still under the tutelage of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). But other issues arise and complicate the integration process.

Beyond the need to structurally reform each country's internal institutions, the European Union will not compromise on the region's stability. While European construction has been built on a desire for peace among peoples, particularly among former enemies, it remains essential that peace be ensured within the Western Balkans. Today, this is not the case. Bosnia-Herzegovina is still plagued by ethnic and territorial divisions that seem insurmountable; Kosovo is recognized by only 21 of the 27 EU members and 92 of the 193 UN members and has experienced a resurgence of tensions with Serbia; Montenegro has complex relations with its Serbian neighbor in a religious context that fosters identity nationalism... Finally, beyond these internal tensions, Serbia's connections with China and especially Russia (we will come back to this) risk posing problems of loyalty to European institutions, while the Union has been severely tested by the crises that occurred during the previous decade.

TENSIONS AMONG EU MEMBERS

The integration process of the Balkans into the European Union indeed takes place in a context of "many-crises" that had not been anticipated and followed the great enlargement of 2004. The financial crisis originating from the United States, leading to the eurozone crisis and the Greek crisis, greatly strengthened the arguments of Eurosceptics, already firmly against any expansion, particularly within member countries that are often the largest contributors. This was followed by a significant migration crisis, with flows coming from the Middle East and Africa, further exacerbating tensions among members, resulting in an impressive rise in far-right populism. Moreover, for the first time, a member left the European Union. The difficult negotiation that followed the Brexit vote traumatized and further divided a European community that had nothing more than the name "union." However, it is important to put things into perspective, especially regarding Brexit, since the United Kingdom already had a special status and never truly integrated into the European project (debates over financial contribution or monetary policy). Nevertheless, these different crises revealed other weaknesses that the European Union seeks to address to ensure the credibility of its institutions in the face of rising nationalism in some members.

Today, real tensions between the European Union and the Polish and Hungarian governments contribute to further weakening solidarity among member states. Between violations of press freedom, non-separation of powers, or corrupt judiciary, the Commission has decided to take a firm stand. This issue is relatively important in the context of the Western Balkans' accession process. The rapprochement is first made between all these countries, which are former Soviet provinces. The personality of certain leaders, such as the Serbian president, very close to Viktor Orbán, is worrying. Serbian nationalist tendencies appear as a danger of seeing a member country prioritize a national law incompatible with European law again. Gathered around European values, the European Commission does not seem destined to be trapped again.

Finally, before analyzing the strategic context of Balkan integration into the European Union, it is necessary to mention the war in Ukraine, an event that can tip the integration process and determine the role and strategy of the European Union. At the present time, as official candidate status has just been given to Ukraine and Moldova, some fear that this will once again block the progress of the Balkan region. It is even shocking that, under the influence of emotion rather than reason, Ukraine skips the stages of accession, sidelining countries that have also experienced their share of tragedies, and which, as we have seen, have embarked on a profound — albeit still imperfect — restructuring that, given the difficulties within the Union, is more than imperative. For others, the war in Ukraine settles the enlargement debate. To counter Vladimir Putin's expansionist ambitions, the question is no longer "should we expand?" but "how should we expand?" In any case, a possible accelerated accession of Ukraine, which has not undertaken the necessary restructuring, sounds more like a short-term idea, while, as we will see, integrating the Balkans is a crucial geostrategic issue.

A REGION THAT ATTRACTS INVESTORS

The Western Balkans region is not only of particular interest in Europe. Others also have their eyes on this strategic area, for various reasons. Thus, several countries have increased their ambitions and strategic presence in the Balkans. Among these states are Turkey, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. As we have seen, China exerts strong influence on Serbia, which also maintains privileged relations with Russia. Turkey, for its part, explains its presence with historical arguments and a role as protector of the Sunni Muslim community, notably in Albania, Bosnia, and Montenegro. On this point, it competes with Saudi Arabia. As Kamal Bayramzadeh mentions, "after the wars of the former Yugoslavia, political Islam emerged in the region, particularly with the outbreak of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which provided Riyadh with an opportunity to invest in the area through a policy of aid to Bosnian forces." These influence struggles, carried out through soft power policies, further reinforce the strategic interest in the Balkans' entry into the European Union.

Just look at the maps. Geographically, the Western Balkans are surrounded by EU member states, which cannot afford to leave them in the hands of the aforementioned powers. Behind its supportive discourse, Angela Merkel did not hide that this was her primary concern. The interests of China, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia are hardly compatible with European values, and a power struggle over a region at the heart of the European continent would disrupt an already fragile stability.

SPEEDING UP REFORMS

Integrating the Balkans is therefore of paramount strategic importance. Although the countries are at different stages of reform, they represent a peace and security issue. To that extent, their presence can only strengthen the European Union and the positions of its allies, with the United States at the forefront. However, it must be acknowledged that none of them are currently ready to join the European Union. But the promise made to Ukraine risks both undermining the goodwill of candidate governments and tarnishing the Union's credibility, which usually imposes strict and indisputable criteria to satisfy membership. If an enlargement were to occur in this direction, it is not certain that the Union would emerge strengthened.

If the EU officially remains in charge of its integration policy, its role weakens it. This is notably due to a contrast between a clear desire for enlargement and expectations that may seem utopian. The events in Ukraine, if they initially revealed an uncommon solidarity, tend again to plunge the Union into a short-term strategy that could cost it dearly. Faced with powers that attach little importance to democratic values, EU's time is running out. The European Commission must regain control to speed up reforms. Enlargement must not be called into question if it is carried out with a strategic geostrategic outlook of protection, particularly against Russia and Turkey.